Strategic Forecasting for a
New Therapeutic Launch

Customer is a global pharmaceutical company with a pre-launch therapeutic for a chronic autoimmune disease. There is a need to understand current HCP prescribing trends and anticipate demand for the product before it is launched given current resources.

Approach:

• Identify Data: Everything begins with data. In this case the customer wanted to leverage anonymized patient-level data, projected claims volume, and qualitative survey results.
• Market Understanding: Deepen the understanding of the market landscape. Understand what therapies patients are currently receiving, which HCP clinical behaviors are prevalent, and how patients navigate their care journeys.
• Access Dynamics: Incorporated how internal (e.g., field team size) and external (e.g., other competitor upcoming launches) factors play into forecasting.
• Scenario Planning: built in all variables into a business insights tool to allow for scenario testing and to keep forecasting flexible as the client neared launch.

Impact:

Strategic forecasting for a new-to-market therapy supported the customer in preparing for agile market adaptation and ensured timely patient access.

• Improved revenue forecasting: Identified revenue expectations based on 3 sources of business of new patient starts, switches from other therapies in the same product classes, and switches from different product classes
• Field force sizing: Determined rate limiting factors such as a smaller workforce than needed to achieve optimal results and HCP sentiment from the survey
• Scenario planning dashboard creation: Delivered a turnkey business intelligence dashboard that provides flexibility related to upcoming market events, changing launch dates, and more

Top Differentiators/Benefits:

• Unlimited access: Compass Patient and Prescriber’s unique access model allowed the team to profile physicians treating these patients beyond the market basket – looking at a full picture of the HCPs’ clinical behaviors
• Blocked drug visibility: the Compass Data Network’s closed sources provided visibility into blocked drugs that the team had previously been unable to see and in turn allowed the team to form more comprehensive patient journeys
• Retail + Non-Retail Projections: Compass Prescriber’s ability to project on both Mx-benefit and Rx-benefit therapies allowed the team to understand the full market volumes to tied anticipated revenue to their brand